India may see a decline in the net outflow of 6,500 high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) in the year 2023, down from the 2022 number of 7,500, according to a new report by Henley & Partners, a London-based investment migration consultancy.
This places India as the country with the second-largest HNWI outflow after China, which is expected to see a net high net worth individual outflow of 13,500 in 2023, up from last year's number of 10,800.
"Although the second-biggest loser globally, India’s net exit numbers are predicted to drop to 6,500 in 2023 compared to last year (7,500)...these outflows are not particularly concerning as India produces far more new millionaires than it loses to migration,” the report said.
Sunita Singh-Dalal, partner, Private Wealth & Family Offices at Hourani says that “prohibitive tax legislation coupled with convoluted, complex rules relating to outbound remittances that are open to misinterpretation and abuse", are but a few issues that have triggered the trend of investment migration from India.
As it has for the past decade, China has continued to lose the largest numbers of dollar millionaires each year to migration. Experts say general wealth growth in China is slowing over the past few years, and thus the recent outflows could be more damaging than usual.
The UK, Russia, and Brazil rank 3rd, 4th, and 5th, respectively, at net outflow of 3,200, 3,000, and 1,200, respectively. Both Russia and Brazil showed improvement in the net outflow of HNWI. The UK’s anticipated HNWI flight is double that of last year when it saw a net exodus of 1,600 millionaires.
The data represent the countries and territories with net inflows or net outflows of 100 or more HNWIs. Nine of the top 10 countries for net inflows of HNWIs in 2023 host formal investment migration programs and actively encourage foreign direct investment in return for residence rights, says the report.
The top five countries that could see a record inflow of HNWI in 2023 are Australia (5,200), UAE (4,500), Singapore 3,200, USA (2,100), and Switzerland (1,800).
Although the UAE drops into 2nd place following its record-breaking influx in 2022, it is still expected to enjoy an impressive net arrival this year. Singapore ranks 3rd with a net inflow of 3,200 HNWIs, its highest on record, followed by the U.S. with an expected net influx of 2,100 millionaires.
Switzerland (net inflow of 1,800) and Canada (1,600) are in 5th and 6th place, respectively, with Greece (1,200), France (1,000 — double last year’s net intake of 500 millionaires), Portugal (800), and New Zealand (700) all making it onto this year’s Top 10 list for net HNWI inflows. Israel is predicted to tumble out of the Top 10, with its net inflow of millionaires set to almost halve this year to just 600 compared to 1,100 in 2022.
Juerg Steffen, CEO of Henley & Partners, says there’s been a steady growth in millionaire migration over the past decade, and 2023 and 2024 numbers could be at 122,000 and 128,000, respectively.
