India will be the largest contributor to the increase in non-OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) oil demand by 2015, according to the latest report by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The organisation has attributed an increase in the working-age population, an increase in the urbanisation rate and an expansion of the middle-class population to be some of the factors behind it.
Titled as the 'World Oil Outlook 2045', the report says that India will add 6.6 mb/d (million barrels per day) to oil demand by 2045. Meanwhile, Asia’s oil demand is set to increase by 4.6 mb/d, China’s by 4 mb/d, Africa’s by 3.8 mb/d and the Middle East’s by 3.6 mb/d.
According to the report, between 2022 and 2045, the country’s working-age population is projected to increase by 156 million. Moreover, OPEC forecasts India’s growth to stand at 5.9% in 2024 and to reach 6.4% by 2028. "India is forecast to continue to be the fastest growing major non-OECD country, with an average growth rate of 6.1% p.a. Growth is expected to be strongest between 2028 and 2035, as the country benefits from a young and dynamic population, a growing middle class and continued, albeit reduced, fiscal stimulus," says OPEC.
Meanwhile, according to OPEC, the global primary energy demand is to increase from around 291 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d) in 2022 to close to mboe/d in 2045, which is an increase of 68.3 mboe/d, or 23% over the outlook period. "Growth is expected to slow gradually from the relatively high short-term rates to more modest long-term increments, in line with moderating population and economic growth. Energy demand growth will be driven by the non-OECD region, which is set to increase by 69 mboe/d over the outlook period. Around 28% of non-OECD growth is expected to come from India alone. At the same time, energy demand in OECD countries is set to marginally decline in the outlook period," says the report.
Meanwhile, global oil demand is set to reach a level of 110.2 mb/d in 2028, witnessing an increase of 10.6 mb/d as against 2022. According to the report, non-OECD oil demand is expected to increase by a robust 10.1 mb/d, reaching a level of 63.7 mb/d by 2028. “OECD demand will also increase by 0.5 mb/d over the medium term. In the long term, global oil demand is expected to increase by more than 16 mb/d between 2022 and 2045, rising from 99.6 mb/d in 2022 to 116 mb/d in 2045. Non-OECD oil demand is expected to increase by almost 26 mb/d between 2022 and 2045. In contrast, OECD oil demand is set to contract by around 9.3 mb/d,” says the report.
