India’s population to peak in 2060s at 1.7 bn before falling 12%: UN

India will see a decline in its population for the time in the early 2060s after touching the 1.7-billion mark, the United Nations has said in its latest World Population Prospects 2024 report.

Released on World Population Day on July 11, 2024, the UN report says the country's population will see a 12% decline after reaching its peak. "The population of India, which is expected to remain the world’s largest throughout the century, will likely decline by 12 per cent after reaching its peak in the early 2060s at about 1.7 billion."

India's population stood at 1.44 billion in 2023, which is about 9.4 million (0.7%) more than the UN's previous estimate from the 2022 revision. "The population was revised based on changes to the assumed mortality and net international migration in the post-COVID period. Historic trends in age-specific fertility rates were revised as well," the UN says.

In 126 countries across the world, the population is likely to continue growing through 2054, potentially reaching a peak later in the century or beyond 2100. "This group includes several of the world’s most populous countries: India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and the United States," says the UN report.

In 2023, the number of deaths among children under age 5 fell below 5 million for the first time in recent history. However, 95% of such deaths took place in the 126 countries with populations still growing including the Democratic Republic of the Congo, India, Nigeria and Pakistan, the report reveals.

The world’s population is also expected to continue growing over the coming 50 or 60 years, reaching a peak of around 10.3 billion people in the mid-2080s, up from 8.2 billion in 2024.

After peaking, the global population is projected to start declining gradually, falling to 10.2 billion people by the end of the century. "The estimated likelihood that the world’s population will peak within the current century is very high (probability of 80 per cent)," the UN says.

The latest data represents a major change compared to projections produced by the United Nations a decade ago when the estimated probability that global population growth would end during the twenty-first century was around 30%. "The size of the world’s population in 2100 is now expected to be 6 per cent smaller – or about700 million people fewer – than anticipated a decade ago."

Moreover, in 63 countries and areas, containing 28% of the world’s population in 2024, the size of their population peaked before 2024. This group includes China, Germany, Japan and Russia.

For decades, there has been widespread concern about the impact of rapid population growth on the planet. The UN report says the global population is still increasing currently but at an ever-slowing pace. The report also reveals that women today bear one child fewer, on average, than they did around 1990. “By the late 2030s, half of the women in countries with populations that have already peaked will be too old to have children by natural means.”