India's urban population to rise to 35-37% in Census 2024: SBI Research

India's urban population which stood at 31.1% of the total population in Census 2011 is expected to increase to 35-37% in Census 2024, indicating a rapidly urbanising India, according to SBI Research.

The share of Indian population in urban agglomerations of more than 1 million has increased from 14.3% in 2014 to 16.6% in 2023, Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group chief economic adviser at State Bank of India (SBI), writes in a research report.

Tamil Nadu continues to be the most urbanised state with 54% of the population living in urban areas followed by Maharashtra (48.8%) which leads in the number of persons living in urban areas. Himachal Pradesh (10.3%), followed by Bihar with 12.4%, Assam (15.7%) and Orissa (19.0%) form the other end of the spectrum.

Due to an increase in the level of urbanisation, the number of million-plus cities are increasing. From merely 18 cities in 1991 census, it had increased to 52 in 2011 census. “We believe that in 2024 census around 75-80 cities would have million-plus population having their own challenges,” writes Ghosh.

While the median age of India is expected to increase from 24 years in 2021 to 28-29 years in 2023-24, it is still one of the youngest nations in the world and less than the world’s median age also, says Ghosh. “India fares quite well placed on this parameter with China whose median age now comes to 39.5 years against 34.5 years in 2011... The demographic dividends can be huge and a growth multiplier in coming decade for us thus!” he explains.

Interestingly, in 2024, the proportion of children in the age group 0-14 years is projected to be 24.3% whereas it was 30.9% in 2011, a continuing reversal of the trend that was initiated in 1971, as per SBI Research. On the other hand, the proportion of elderly persons is ever increasing since 1951 and is projected to reach 10.7% in 2024, and likely to further increase to 13.1% in 2031, the report says.

“In consonance, the working age population (15-59) has also witnessed an increasing trend since 1971 and is projected to reach 64.4% in 2021, further likely to increase to 65.2% in 2031 census boding well for country’s productivity as emphasis on factors of productions and tech rails created in the last decade accentuate growth across a multiverse of opportunities jointly,” the report says.

The Indian Census is the largest single source of statistical information on various characteristics of the people of India. With a history of more than 140 years, this time-tested exercise is bringing in a real insight into the data every 10 years, beginning in the year 1872 when the first census was conducted in different parts of India. The 2021 census is the first census to ever be postponed in India due to the Covid-19 pandemic.